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P-ISSN: 2618-060X, E-ISSN: 2618-0618   |   NAAS: 5.20

2025, Vol. 8, Special Issue 1

Evaluation of statistical models for forecasting of area, production and productivity of minor millets in Chhattisgarh


Dipti, D Nishad, D Prasad, MK Deshmukh, Reshma Rakse and Sandeep Sonkar

The study has been made to forecast time series data from 2000 to 2023 of minor millets production in chhattisgarh along with the evaluation of Statistical Models for forecasting of area, production and productivity of minor millets in Chhattisgarh. To explain the fluctuation in area, production, and productivity of minor millets in Chhattisgarh an effort has been made to fit linear, polynomial, ARIMA models and in order to develop a methodology that can accurately explain the variation in area, production and productivity in addition to the model selection for future forecasts, the highest coefficient of determination (R2) and the lowest MAPE and RMSE values were used as selection criteria. As per the study, productivity increased from 2000 to 2023, while the area and output of minor millets exhibited a fluctuating constant and dropping tendency during the predicted period, which is up to five years. the prediction performance or better accuracy fitted models results in terms of MAE, RMSE, and R2 for ARIMA, It is found that ARIMA (0,1,0) models and ARIMA (0,1,2) for area with lowest MAE (4.56) and RMSE (6.35) value and greater R2 (0.89) and Productivity with lowest MAE (5.42) and RMSE (7.08) value and greater R2 (0.75) has outperformed than other model respectively. The future projection of the minor millets crop showed a declining tendency for area and production where as a minute increase in productivity. Erratic upward and downward i.e. constant trend shown for area and production however productivity projections show an upward tendency for future.
Pages : 475-479 | 59 Views | 24 Downloads
How to cite this article:
Dipti, D Nishad, D Prasad, MK Deshmukh, Reshma Rakse, Sandeep Sonkar. Evaluation of statistical models for forecasting of area, production and productivity of minor millets in Chhattisgarh. Int J Res Agron 2025;8(1S):475-479. DOI: 10.33545/2618060X.2025.v8.i1Sg.2466
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