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P-ISSN: 2618-060X, E-ISSN: 2618-0618   |   NAAS: 5.20

2025, Vol. 8, Special Issue 1

Dry and wet spell probability by Markov chain model for agricultural planning at Palghar district, Maharashtra


RS Sayyad, VM Jadhav and SV Phad

Historical rainfall data of 26 years (1998 to 2023) of Palghar District were collected and analyzed with different statistical parameters like annual mean rainfall, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The statistical analysis of rainfall revealed that the total mean annual rainfall of the district is 2665.3 mm. Annual maximum and minimum rainfall were received in Palghar district is 3603.7 mm (2019) & 1749.2 mm (2015) respectively. Standard deviation is 449.1 mm with coefficient of variation is 16.5 percent. Palghar receives 96.2% mean rainfall during south west monsoon season which is about 2564.4 mm, and only 3.08% (82.0 mm) rainfall during post-monsoon season. Weekly initial and conditional probabilities of dry and wet spell for monsoon and post-monsoon rainy season for 10, 20, 40, and 80 mm for the 22nd to 52nd SMW were determined, to obtain specific information essential for crop planning and for carrying out agricultural operations. The initial probability {P (W)} as well as conditional probability {P (W/W)} of getting 10 mm rainfall was more than 50% during 23rd to 26th SMW, Therefore, nursery preparation of rice can be done during this period. The initial {P (W)} as well as conditional probability {P (W/W)} of getting 20 mm rainfall was more than 50% in 24th to 26th SMW, this is more suitable for sowing of direct seeded low land rice and other kharif crops. this week is more suitable for sowing of crops. During 25th to 27th SMW probability of getting 80 mm rainfall was more than 50%. This period is suitable for transplantation of rice crops. Chance of dry week preceded by another dry week (PDD) were more than 40% during 40th, 41st and 42nd SMW. Therefore, during those dry weeks especially at the end of main rainy season, supplementary irrigation and moisture conservation practice such as mulching need to be undertaken. Since, 43th SMW (22 Oct - 28 Oct) & 45th to 52nd SMW was observed that there is possibility of (PDD) more than 90% Therefore, growing of high value rabi crops without supplementary irrigation would be very high risk during rabi season. Proper crop planning with suitable water conservation measures is need to be adopt to enhance the production of kharif as well as rabi crops of the district.
Pages : 459-465 | 60 Views | 28 Downloads
How to cite this article:
RS Sayyad, VM Jadhav, SV Phad. Dry and wet spell probability by Markov chain model for agricultural planning at Palghar district, Maharashtra. Int J Res Agron 2025;8(1S):459-465. DOI: 10.33545/2618060X.2025.v8.i1Sg.2459
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