Statistical analysis of production trends of marigold in Tumkur district of Karnataka

Marigold, a vibrant and economically significant flower crop, plays a vital role in Karnataka’s floriculture sector, particularly in the Tumkur district. Widely cultivated for its use in garlands, religious ceremonies, decorative purposes, and the extraction of natural pigments, Marigold cultivation provides substantial income opportunities for small and marginal farmers. In this study, secondary data on Marigold production in Tumkur district from 1981 to 2023 were obtained. A comprehensive trend analysis was performed using various statistical models, including Linear, Quadratic, Cubic, Exponential, and Sinusoidal models, to examine long-term changes in production. The models were evaluated based on R-squared (R²) values, which indicate the proportion of variance explained, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which reflects prediction accuracy. Among the models assessed, the cubic model provided the best fit for Marigold production, exhibiting the highest R² and the lowest RMSE values, signifying its superior ability to capture the underlying pattern in the data. These results suggest that Marigold production in Tumkur has undergone non-linear changes over the years, possibly influenced by varying agro-climatic conditions, market demand, and farmer adoption of improved varieties.