Land and water resource inventory and planning for sustainable agriculture in selected area of Belagavi district, Karnataka

Rainfall is a volatile and fragile resource that is vital for the success of dryland agricultural production systems. To support the development of rainfall-based farming strategies, the probability and variability of daily rainfall data recorded from 2005 to 2019 in Masarguppi (Athani), located in the Belgaum Northern region of Karnataka, India, were analysed. Rainfall, being a critical natural input for rainfed cropping systems and characterized by high uncertainty and cyclical behaviour, was examined in detail. Statistical analyses were conducted to compute annual, seasonal, monthly and weekly averages along with standard deviations and coefficients of variation. Additionally, rainfall probability was evaluated using the Markov Chain approach. The annual precipitation ranged between 356.1 and 790.7 millimetres, with the highest rainfall recorded in 2019 (790.7 mm) and the lowest in 2012 (356.1 mm). Based on 50, 60 and 70 percent probability levels, a total of 16 weeks (from the 25th to the 41st week) were identified as suitable for kharif crop cultivation under rainfed conditions. Further, initial and conditional probability analysis for 20 mm rainfall indicated that dry spells generally preceded the onset of monsoon weeks. Assessment of the 15-year dataset revealed that meteorological drought conditions occurred during 46 percent of the study period, predominantly classified as mild to moderate.