Climatic variability, drought vulnerability and agrometeorological constraints in Nandurbar and Dhule districts of Maharashtra

The stability of agricultural production in the semi-arid regions of Indian peninsular is fundamentally reliant on the spatiotemporal integrity of the Southwest monsoon. This study investigates climatic variability, drought vulnerability and agrometeorological constraints in the Nandurbar and Dhule districts of Maharashtra using a 33-year climatic dataset (1991-2023). The research utilizes an integrated geospatial and statistical approach, employing the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to analyze long-term trends in rainfall and temperature, alongside the Moisture Deficit Index (MDI) to classify regional climate. Results reveal a robust regional warming signal, with a highly significant rising trend in annual minimum temperature at a rate of 0.02°C/year across both districts. While annual rainfall trends remain largely non-significant, monthly analysis shows a profound intra-seasonal shift: June rainfall is declining significantly in Nandurbar (Q = -2.43 mm/year), whereas September rainfall exhibits a significant increase in both districts (Q = 3.24 in Nandurbar; Q = 2.65 in Dhule), suggesting a prolonged monsoon withdrawal. Drought vulnerability analysis indicates a moderate drought frequency of 15% for Dhule and 16% for Nandurbar, with the year 2012 identified as a period of major, near-uniform monsoon failure. Based on MDI values ranging from -41.30 to -58.81, both districts are classified as "Arid (E)," signifying a persistent imbalance between moisture supply and atmospheric demand. Cropping pattern analysis (2003-2023) highlights a significant transition from traditional drought-tolerant staples like pearl millet and sorghum to high-value commercial crops such as cotton and maize. In Dhule, cotton area expanded by 10,598.32 ha/year, while in Nandurbar, cotton and soybean saw substantial growth. This shift, though economically driven, elevates vulnerability to thermal stress and groundwater depletion. The findings emphasize the urgent need for climate-smart planning, improved water-use efficiency and adaptive crop diversification to preserve agroecosystem sustainability in these climatically sensitive districts.