Growth, instability and sources of change in chickpea production in Bundelkhand Region of Uttar Pradesh

Chickpea is a key pulse crop contributing to food, nutritional security, and sustainability in India, particularly in rainfed regions. This study analyses the growth, instability, and sources of change in chickpea production in the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh over the period 1991-92 to 2022-23. Time-series data on area, production, and yield were analysed by dividing the study period into a pre-policy phase (1991-92 to 2006-07) and a post-policy phase (2007-08 to 2022- 23). Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Cuddy-Della Valle Index, and decomposition analysis were employed. Results indicate that area under chickpea cultivation in Bundelkhand declined over the long run, while production increased substantially due to significant productivity gains. Growth was largely negative and unstable during the pre-policy phase but turned positive and productivity-led in the post-policy phase, reflecting the impact of policy interventions and technological adoption. However, instability in area, production, and yield increased over time, highlighting rising climatic and production risks. Decomposition results reveal a gradual shift from area-driven to yield-driven growth. The study underscores the need for climate-resilient varieties, strengthened extension services, and yield-enhancing strategies to ensure sustainable chickpea production in Bundelkhand’s semi-arid conditions.