2024, Vol. 7, Issue 12, Part G

Methods: For the present research study, annual time series data from 1970-71 to 2022-23 on area, production, and productivity of millet in India (Agriculture Statistics at a Glance 2022) ^[1] were used in the analysis. The study used the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and the Caddy Della Valle instability index to find out the growth patterns and instability of millet crop cultivation in India, respectively. In order to forecast future values of millet production, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was employed.

Results: Decadal analysis of millet cultivation in India reveals a consistent decline in cultivation area and production of sorghum in the years 2011-2023 with -4.811 and -2.997, respectively, and productivity in 2001-2010 was 3.052. The productivity trends of Bajra, Ragi, and small millets in 2011-2023 are 1.99, -0.67, and 3.72, respectively. Caddy-Della Valle Instability Index results show that, compared to rice and wheat, millets such as sorghum, bajra, ragi and small millets show more variability in area, production, and yield. The sorghum area's forecast values demonstrated a declining pattern, from 3535.02 thousand hectares in 2022-2023 to 2416.12 thousand hectares in 2029-2030. Similarly, in 2029-2030, sorghum production dropped from 3814.34 thousand tons to 3259.34 thousand tons. From 2022-2023 to 2029-2030, productivity increases from 1149.24 kg/ha to 1308.64 kg/ha. Similar forecasts have been made for the area under cultivation, production, and productivity of finger millet, small millets, and pearl millet up to 2030. Thus, high-yielding varieties, timely application of inputs, and governmental measures like policy support, the public distribution system, subsidization, and awareness-raising through propaganda and demonstration can all help to increase the output of these nutri-cereals.